Day 16: Truth vs. Projection (Why Transformation Fails Without Honest Data)

When we’re trying to make transformative progress in our lives and we don’t live in truthful capture of what we do daily, we set ourselves up for frustration, failure, and disillusionment.

The transformation either takes longer than we expect or doesn’t happen at all. And we start believing—falsely—that transformation isn’t possible.

But here’s the truth: the issue isn’t that transformation doesn’t work. The issue is we’re projecting instead of capturing reality.

My Weight Struggle: A Case Study

Weight has been a struggle most of my adult life. It’s not that I haven’t known how to lose weight. The formula is simple: take in fewer calories than you burn. Basal metabolic rate plus exercise minus food intake equals weight change.

I’ve known this for decades.

But knowing and doing are different things.

I wasn’t doing the actual math. I wasn’t tracking my basal metabolic rate. I wasn’t calculating calories burned through workouts. I wasn’t logging every bite that went into my mouth.

I was projecting what I thought I was eating. “I’m being pretty good today.” “I didn’t eat that much.” “This is probably fine.”

And the scale didn’t move. Or it moved the wrong direction.

So I’d get frustrated. I’d feel like transformation was impossible. Like my body just didn’t work the same as other people’s.

The brutal truth? I was lying to myself.

What Changed on Day 1

When I started the 7-40 Challenge, I committed to tracking every calorie in MyFitnessPal. Every single one. No guessing. No “close enough.” No projection.

Capture. Truthful, unvarnished data.

By sticking to a calorie threshold every day and logging my daily exercise, I’m being much more honest in this challenge than I would have been otherwise. Because I know I have to watch what I put in my mouth much more rigorously.

If I don’t, I’m just lying to myself—and to anyone else I tell this story to.

The Truth Creates Clarity

I got into a conversation the other day about truth—in regards to current events and politics. My response to the person I was talking to: there’s the truth, and then there is what both sides want to call the truth.

Many times, neither side is actually reporting what actually happened—just their version.

Sherlock Holmes had it right: “It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data.”

Give me the data. Give me the facts and patterns. Let the truth emerge from that—not from what I want the truth to be.

The Mirror Moment

So here’s the question I’m asking myself on Day 16—and the question I’m asking you:

Are you being truthful about the things that matter to you?

If you’re not seeing the change you want, are you projecting instead of capturing factually?

What will you do to change that today?

For me, it’s MyFitnessPal. It’s the scale on Friday mornings. It’s the daily blog post that holds me accountable. It’s the unvarnished truth that I’m 16 days in, 90 chapters revised, and the weight hasn’t moved as much as I’d like.

That’s not failure. That’s data. And data tells me what to adjust.

Day 16 Scorecard: ✅ Bible study ✅ Exercise (Workout B + Walking) ✅ Reading ✅ Calories ✅ Water ✅ Gratitude ✅ Creative hour

Sixteen consecutive perfect days. Projection eliminated. Truth captured.

The best time to start being honest with yourself? Now.

See you tomorrow for Day 17.

Day 10: Data First, Theory Second (Why Sherlock Holmes Got It Right)

I listened to “Made to Stick” this morning during my walk, and I hit the chapter on credibility. The Heath brothers made a point that stopped me cold:

Don’t make up your mind and then go looking for data to prove you’re right. Look for the data to help you make up your mind.

It reminded me of Sherlock Holmes. Arthur Conan Doyle wrote in “A Study in Scarlet”: “It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”

Two different sources, separated by over a century. Same truth.

The Temptation

It would be very easy to say: “By March 15th, I’ll weigh 245 pounds. By April 1st, I’ll have my novel published. By June, I’ll have 10,000 social media followers.”

Make up the goal. Hunt for the data to prove it’s possible. Force yourself into unsustainable practices to hit the deadline.

I’ve done this before. Multiple times in my life, actually. And here’s what happens: I hit the deadline (maybe), but the transformation doesn’t stick. The moment the deadline passes, I’m back where I started. Downward spiral. Rinse, repeat.

Why the 7-40 Challenge Is Different

The physiology of weight loss doesn’t work on my timeline. Exercise recovery doesn’t care about my deadline. Sustainable habits don’t emerge from forcing performance.

So instead of demanding that the data conform to my goal, I’m letting the goal emerge from the data.

Seven daily habits. That’s my theory.

Bible study. Exercise. Reading. Water. Calories. Gratitude. Creative work.

I’m not promising you specific results by specific dates. I’m collecting data through daily practice. And I’m letting that data tell me where I’m headed.

Weight loss? It’s happening (3.7 pounds in 9 days), but I’m not demanding it hit a certain number by a certain date. The data will tell the story.

Novel revision? I’m at 50 chapters. Not because I promised myself 50 by Day 10, but because the daily habit of creative hour produces consistent output. The data shows up.

Social media strategy? Still figuring it out. No false promises. Just daily attempts and learning.

The Sustainable Difference

By committing to the practices instead of the deadlines, I’m building something that becomes part of who I am. Not a sprint to a finish line. A permanent shift in daily behavior.

Sherlock Holmes didn’t demand the facts bend to his theory. He collected evidence and followed where it led. That’s credibility. That’s how you build real transformation instead of false performance.

I don’t want to hit a goal and bounce back. I want sustainable change that sticks because it’s now my daily rhythm, not an unsustainable forced performance.

Day 10 Scorecard: ✅ Bible study ✅ Exercise ✅ Reading ✅ Gratitude ✅ Water, calories, creative hour

Ten consecutive perfect days. Data collecting. Theory emerging.

The best time to stop making up your mind and start collecting data? Now.

See you tomorrow for Day 11.